Regularisation of quarters sought

HYDERABAD: Members of the Joint Action Committee of Ex-Servicemen living in Band Lines and other areas like AC Guards, Masab Tank have offered to pay 50 per cent of the land market value of their existing quarters and requested the government to regularise them.

Over 480 ex-servicemen families, successors to the soldiers who served in the erstwhile Nizam Army reside in these quarters, including those at Mohamedi Lines in an area spanning 27 acres.

After disbandment of the Nizam Army, the soldiers were provided temporary rehabilitation in PWD quarters at concessional rents in the above localities.

Of the 479 quarters, the government authorised 315 and the rest were declared un-authorised, claimed JAC general secretary Rajendra Prasad.

He said the government, while accepting applications for regularising encroachments, was denying the same for them.

He also charged the government of planning to hand over the quarters land to private developers and also to make way for Rajiv Gruhakalpa Apartments.

An Assembly Committee had even recommended the government to regularise the quarters under hire-purchase system, he claimed.

Time to buy...

Is it time to look at purchasing property? Has the correction set in? These are questions most property seekers want answers to.

Realtors, buyers' opposite views hit housing market: ICRA

Here’s a reality check:

Experts in the industry believe it would not be appropriate to assume and wait in anticipation that the property prices will come down like in the stock markets. It is unlikely, they feel.

‘Realty market to see mismatch in demand-supply’

However, buyers need to be cautious about where they are investing and opt for either well established builders or projects that are nearing completion or they warn that their investments may be locked up as projects may not be completed for want of funds. In an interaction with senior executives of real-estate firms, a few common trends emerged.

Downturn now, pick-up possible

The Chief Executive Officer of Lanco Hills, S. Pochender, said, “overall the mood is apparent and is somewhat downturn. We expect such sentiment to remain for anywhere between three and six months and the market will again pick up.”

Chennai sees correction in some pockets

However, Pochender said, “we have no reservations about saying the market will take off again and possibly get much better than what it is today.”

As the interest rates are likely to ease a bit more due to regulatory actions and banks possibly slashing rates, buyers will look at acquiring properties again. Generally, there is a tendency to postpone buys, given the current market sentiment, he said.

Wanna buy a home in US?

“The real-estate market went into a hyper boom phase and people purchased properties as if all the land bank available was getting exhausted. This resulted in a steep hike in prices. As the market went up beyond sustainable levels, this kind of correction was on the cards,” Anand Reddy, Executive Director of PBEL, said.

“What is interesting about the current scenario is that the prices have already corrected by 15-20 per cent. Buyers can now take much more informed decisions then ever before and pick and chose from projects,” he said.

Nagarjuna Construction puts real estate projects on hold

Consolidation on the cards

The Chief Executive Officer of MAK Projects, A. Murali Krishna Reddy, said “if the years 2006-07 and 2007-08 witnessed enormous growth in the real-estate market and prices, it is now a phase witness to correction, driven by both external and internal factors.”

Private equity deals in realty sector down

Asked about the construction industry itself, Krishna Reddy believes that consolidation is on the cards. While big ones with financial muscle will continue their growth or may delay some projects, small developers who are dependent on buyers’ money to execute projects are under pressure.

On builders possibly changing their strategy and focussing on middle-income group apartments and houses, Anand Reddy said, “generally, the quality of construction has gone up in recent times and people’s expectations are also high. We expect all types of properties to be developed.”

Land prices firm, for now

Zones with special incentives

If you look at any project, of the Rs 100 spent for project work, about 40 per cent goes into Government kitty in some form of taxes. Therefore, it is time to look at this afresh. Possibly, Government could consider zones with special incentives which will help make housing more affordable, Anand Reddy said.

A lot of funding from overseas led to local prices shooting up, coupled with buying through domestic loans. While the former RBI Governor, Dr Y.V. Reddy, cautioned against this rapid growth in real-estate prices, no one was willing to look into this aspect as the market continued to boom.

Cautioning against herd mentality of purchase or sale of property, Krishna Reddy said this is time to invest as land prices stopped going up about a year ago and built-up space is also witness to correction. Due to choices, buyers could get good deals.

“Despite concerns of slowdown and some price correction, Hyderabad continues to be a vibrant market and people continue to invest. I am against bargains as this only exposes those who have priced steeply. In fact, if you look at Lanco projects, we arrived at a fair price and have stayed with it despite the spiralling cost of materials,” Pochender said.

Trends in Hyderabad

A recent study of makaan.com analysing property trends in Hyderabad shows that 38 per cent of property seekers are very specific about preference of choice of purchase of their property and the rest are willing to buy a property anywhere in Hyderabad.

Depending upon the location of property, there has been a slowdown in demand ranging between 11 and 12 per cent.

More India business stories

Broadly classifying Hyderabad into three major areas of Hyderabad, Secunderabad and Greater Hyderabad, the report finds that the demand is highest in Hyderabad, followed by Secunderabad and Greater Hyderabad.

The demand equation for residential property indicates a huge appetite for properties in the sub-Rs 60 lakh segment. Significantly, the Rs 30-60 lakh segment is where there is shortage of supply while Rs 60 lakh and above has oversupply.

This only illustrates that there is demand for affordable housing, the report noted.
Mo

State Bank of Hyderabad to expand

State Bank of Hyderabad (SBH) aims to expand its presence in Orissa by setting up four new branches in the state in 2009-10.

Addressing media persons on the sidelines of National Management Seminar held here at the Asian School of Business Management, Renu Challu, managing director of SBH said, “We have already applied to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for setting up our new branches in Orissa and these branches will come up in the next fiscal.”

At present, SBH has six branches in Orissa, which includes three branches in Bhubaneswar, two in Cuttack and one in Berhampur.

SBH is also looking to ramp up its pan India network and it has targeted to set up around 200 branches by the end of 2009-10 out of which 50 new branches will be added by the end of this fiscal.

On credit offtake, Challu said, “SBH is expecting a credit growth of about 25 per cent in the next two quarters of 2008-09. The bank will extend its credit to firms in sectors like power, cement, fertilisers and real estate. However, we will be selective in extending real estate loans and only those real estate developers with a proven track record and good net worth will be considered.”

SBH has recently rolled out the Smart Salary Account solution for corporates which includes features like pre approved credit facility besides offering car loans and personal loans.

Hitting the brakes?

The speedbreakers are becoming more numerous on job street. According to the latest BT-TeamLease Employment Outlook Survey (October-December 2008 quarter), the caution visible in the last quarter has turned into a decisive downturn—both in hiring and business sentiment. The Employment Outlook is down 10 index points while the Business has dipped nine index points in the quarter. The Business Outlook for the next quarter is at an all-time low of 56 index points, compared to 65 index points in the last quarter, a clear indication that the overall downbeat sentiment is hurting business prospects.


Employers are in the wait’n’watch mode. The result: hiring activity is likely to be sluggish in most sectors—IT, infrastructure, retail, FMCG & media, financial services, telecom and manufacturing & engineering. ITES is the only sector that is buoyant, according to the survey. However, this buoyancy has turned into caution after the Wall Street crash because many companies depend on the now sick US financial services companies for major portions of their revenues. The survey, incidentally, was conducted before the crash.

So, is it time to panic? Not quite. Companies are not talking layoffs or even a freeze on hirings. Their focus has shifted towards improving efficiency and productivity of employees in order to remain competitive in the market, rather than on increasing staff strength. What does that translate into for you? Read on.

In the survey, the Net Employment Outlook (the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting an increase in hiring and those expecting a decline) stands at 65 per cent, a decline of 10 index points over the last quarter. That’s the lowest across the last eight quarters surveyed (See The Freefall). Points out Sampath Shetty, VP, Permanent Staffing, TeamLease Services: “The last quarter for this calendar year shows a grim overall outlook and continues to reverse the employment growth in India.”

Spread across eight cities—Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Pune, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad—the survey drew responses from 495 companies (See Methodology). In Bangalore, the Business Outlook for the October-December quarter of 2008 plummeted 20 index points (See Mixed Bag). But this is a minor blip compared to Ahmedabad and Hyderabad, which are facing the slowdown blues, with drops of a whopping 41 and 31 index points, respectively. It’s a dismal business sentiment across all sectors. While the sentiment for retail, media & FMCG sector has shown a marginal improvement, all other sectors reported a negative sentiment. After a massive decline of 47 index points in the last quarter, the financial services sector has touched another low with another decline of 16 index points. The sector has spiralled downward over the last few quarters due to the global meltdown in last one year.

Adds Shetty: “The IT sector has shown a steady slowdown in hiring over the last few quarters, which is indicative of the maturity of this sector, whereas the ITES sector has been volatile on hiring forecasts in last few quarters. The glimmer of hope for the ITES sector—that the US recession will have a positive impact for the Indian ITES industry— has not really been borne out by facts.”

Neelam Gill Malhotra, Vice President (HR), CSC India
Neelam Gill Malhotra
P.B. Nageshwar, Head, HR, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj
P.B. Nageshwar
Infrastructure holds ground
Telecom, along with the retail, media & FMCG sector, leads the downward spiral. There will be fewer jobs in manufacturing and engineering, financial services, infrastructure and IT. ITES is the only sector that has bucked the trend, but the financial crisis in the US and Europe could dampen the positive sentiment. This is because most outsourcing players have large global financial services companies as their clients. Explains Tim Huiting, Vice President (HR), Convergys: “The impact is mixed—some companies that have a major part of their revenues coming from sick financial services players have been hurt badly. For others, the impact may not be that big or even neutral.” Huiting sees the net employment growth in the BPO sector remaining neutral till December 2008. In terms of hiring activities, the last quarter of 2008 will be very different from the first three quarters for Convergys. It recorded a strong recruitment growth of 25-30 per cent in the first three quarters, fuelled by high attrition rates. The company expects instability in the BPO business to lead to less movement of people, across levels.

CSC India, too, sees no cause for alarm. One of CSC India’s clients in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) space, like Washington Mutual (WaMu), has recently been sold out to JPMorgan Chase, after being a victim of the implosion of the US mortgage market. Says Neelam Gill Malhotra, Vice President (HR), CSC India: “The global crisis hasn’t affected us much, though we have got our antennae up. We have already been committed a large amount of work under long-term contracts with WaMu. That means, irrespective of WaMu’s ownership change, CSC will continue to fulfil its IT services requirements.”

The manufacturing sector, though down, is not too worried about the global financial crisis. Yet, at the same time, employers in the sector are not upbeat about the current market scenario and are increasingly cautious about their hiring intentions. “I think the slowdown has little to do with domestic consumption; the major factors affecting India’s economy will remain unchanged,” says Yashovardhan Verma, Director (HR), LG Electronics India.

Tim Huiting, Vice President (HR), Convergys
Tim Huiting
Surprisingly, the telecom sector, which has been fairly insulated from the global turmoil, is very conservative in its outlook for the quarter. But infrastructure has been steadiest of the lot. “This is thanks to the public private partnership (PPP) projects being a long-term play. These have negligible exposure to the current economy scenario,” adds Shetty.

The intention to hire in the financial services sector is at 59 index points, a drop of 8 index points compared to the last quarter. Will the situation worsen as the global financial markets remain in turmoil? Recruiters say that other than insurance sector, which is linked to the domestic economy, the entire BFSI pack, including investment banking, retail banking, and stock broking, is bracing for major lay-offs. “The situation is so dire that it is expected that ICICI Bank, which had announced plans of hiring 40,000 new employees during 2008-09, may not be able to add more than 5,000 new employees,” says Kris Lakshmikanth, Founder CEO & Managing Director, The Headhunters India.

IT bellwether Infosys Technologies is trying to soften the slowdown blow by reducing the size of its ‘‘bench’’ and increasing utilisation. Says Mohandas Pai, Director, HR and Administration, Infosys: “We expect hiring and salaries across the IT and ITES sector to be muted for the next few quarters as the full impact of the slowdown in the US and now Europe sinks in.”

Maveric Systems CEO Ranga Reddy has a word of caution: “On the IT front, nothing much was expected last quarter because of Christmas—but from January, companies will feel the (negative) US impact more—many have more than 60 per cent of their revenues coming from the US. They will be more impacted in the coming financial year.”

Reddy foresees curtailment in new hiring till financial projections from customers are more clearly outlined next year—this will have an impact on campus recruitment in June, too.

The hiring outlook for cities across the spectrum has taken a beating. The survey puts Job Outlook for Mumbai at 60 index points, down 15 points compared to the previous quarter. Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Delhi see a dip in the fortunes with the cities posting declines of 40, 16 and 10 index points, respectively. Chennai’s bad run also continues with a drop of 10 index points. The only city that has a positive Job Outlook is Hyderabad, which, incidentally, witnessed a drop of 31 index points in business sentiment. T. Sreedhar, MD, TMI Network, a leading talent hiring company, headquartered in Hyderabad, offers an explanation for this. “I see no contradiction here as both (Employment Outlook and the Business Outlook) are in sync.

The Employment Outlook is up because the projects that have been lined up (especially in infrastructure) will have to be executed now and the Business Outlook is down in tune with the dampening of the business sentiment, which has now been exacerbated by the happenings in the US.” In fact, it is also visible in the Employment Outlook, which should normally have been up by 15 to 20 per cent and not just 7 per cent, he adds. But then, why is this happening in Hyderabad alone? “Well, a bulk of the infrastructure players operate out of this region; then, new projects like the Rs 12,000-crore metro rail project have just been awarded,” says Sreedhar.

This contradiction has left S.V. Krishnan, Global Head (HR), Satyam Computer Services, puzzled. “There is a lot of buzz (in Hyderabad) and this is true for any sector—construction, infrastructure, real estate or IT.” Bangalore, according to Pai, has problems around both expensive infrastructure and talent. Other cities have been able to address both the issues more aggressively.

Despite the bleak job outlook projected for Chennai in the survey, companies are optimistic on the employment front. Shekhar Arora, Executive Director (HR), Ashok Leyland, attributes this to new units coming up, particularly in the auto sector, like Renault Nissan, Daimler and Mahindra Design Centre, which will be ready a couple of years down the line while Satyam Computer is scaling up its auto design centre in Chennai. Companies like Maveric Systems, which have greater presence in the UK, West Asia and Asia Pacific and little exposure to the US, are going ahead with recruitment and training plans. But others will take a more cautious view.

S. V. Krishnan, Global Head, HR, Satyam Computer Services
S. V. Krishnan
Setback for Tier-II cities
The metros continue to corner most jobs created, and Tier-I and Tier-II cities have lost ground. The intention to hire in Tier-I and Tier-II cities has dropped six and seven points, respectively, in the survey. Tier-I cities are largely considered the growth centres for the BPO industry (See IT Special, BPO 2.0). “In India, we still don’t have wide infrastructure support to shift to Tier-II and Tier-III cities in a big way. Tier-I, though expensive, still attracts the best talent compared to other Class-II, Class III towns,” says Huiting. P.B. Nageshwar, Head (HR), Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, says that the demand for relevant talent will continue to grow in the metros. “On the other hand, if Tier-II and Tier-III cities can attract good people, they can grow at tremendous rates,” he says. Infosys has expanded across the country and is looking beyond its headquarters in Bangalore. It has built large campuses in Chennai and Hyderabad as well as emerging towns such as Mangalore and Thiruvananthapuram to keep pace with its growth.

The problem of weak infrastructure still persists in Class-II and Class-III towns. In these cities, infrastructure growth hasn’t really picked up the way it was expected to, says Verma.

Parsvnath sees 30-40% sales growth in H2FY09

Pradeep Jain, Chairman, Parsvnath Developers, said that going forward, the next half of this financial year is going to be stronger than the previous one, because in the previous one there were a lot of concerns related to the global economy
etc. "Also in this first half, the investor driven demand has entirely gone away and the talks about the prices going down also impacted end-user demands. But now, since the last two months, the end-user demand kept increasing as the prices are not going to come down and the sales keep going up. In the next half of this financial year I am expecting growth to the tune of about 30-40%."

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Pradeep Jain on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.


Q: It’s been a disappointing and a tough first half for real estate sector and also punished by the market as well. But talking about future, you think the second half of this year is going to be as tough as the first half or do you think there is some scope for improvement there?



A: Going forward, the next half of this financial year is going to be stronger than the previous one, because in the previous one there were a lot of concerns related to the global economy etc. Also in this first half, the investor driven demand has entirely gone away and the media keeps talking about the prices going down and the end-user demands was also impacted because of that. But now from the last two months the end user demand kept increasing and the user is able to understand that the prices are not going to come down and the sales keep going up. In the next half of this financial year I am expecting growth to the tune of about 30-40%.



Q: Isn’t there a bit of disconnect here, in the second half you see demand going up, but a report said that the sales we have seen in October are the lowest we have seen in some time as far as real estate sector is concerned?



A: I don’t know which report you are quoting about but as compared to the month of September, the October month’s end user demand increased substantially.



Q: You are at the heart of the action where there was maximum price surge and channel checks have suggested that there has been some bit of a price correction, Gurgaon, Greater Noida and Delhi, going forward both on demand and on pricing front, how much of a correction do you expect?



A: The prices in Delhi are bound to go up because there is very limited quality land available and I don’t foresee any cool down in prices in adjacent to Gurgaon also, but in Greater Gurgaon the prices are bound to cool down because of non-infrastructure and the non-availability of the customer who wants to buy the property for the end use propose. Greater Gurgaon will take time to come up. Similarly in Noida, I don’t foresee any cool down but in the Greater Noida extension, there is a cool down in demand because the end users don’t want to take property into the futuristic location.



When the end user buys the property, he wants to understand the kind of the property he is buying and he wants to shift to the property in 2.5-3 years. The end user will look for that property be it in Noida, Greater Noida, Gurgaon etc where he can shift in 2.5-3 years.



Q: If you are saying that October sales were higher than September sales, can you give some hard numbers in Gurgaon, Noida, and the areas that you spoke about?



A: Related to our own projects in Gurgaon, Delhi, in Greater Noida and Sonipath, as compared to September, we have seen growth to the tune of 22-25% in the month of October.



Q: Was it at same prices or lower prices?



A: It’s a surprise for you that it was on higher prices. We are developing a project in the North of Delhi, in the month of September we were selling at Rs 8,000 per sq ft, and in the month of October we increased about 20% and now we are selling at Rs 10,000 per sq ft.



Q: A lot has been riding on your SEZ projects - out of the 211 million sq ft that you have currently and which were slated to be developed in the next 4-5 years, have you seen any pullback on account of higher liquidity constraints or high interest costs?



A: We haven’t seen any pullback in SEZ and we are getting all the sanctions from the regulators and local authorities. Our Indore, Dehradun, Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Cochin projects are on the track and we are going to start in the next couple of months and we don’t foresee any cool down in that. We are in talks with the private equity investors and we are on the way to close those transactions very soon.



Q: With RBI taking the steps, do you think it’s too little to late or going forward, your interest costs may come down just a wee bit?



A: The RBI and the government very aggressively cut the CRR, repo and the reverse and also the SLR. So one side though want to congratulate government on taking this step but on the other side I am really disappointed because related to real estate, the risk weightages and direct liquidity into the real estate is not there yet.



We are requesting from the association and the Chamber to the government to come forward and to give some liquidity into the real estate system. The money needs to come out on the street which is not happening.



Q: What is the current debt equity ratio that you are sitting at and what are the debt levels on your balance sheet?



A: Our net debt is in the tune of about Rs 1,640 crore and our cost of debt is 13.78% as of now and debt equity ratio is about 0.85.

Crack in Indian realty firms

Future economic historians may remember the month that just ended as Black September. Lehman Brothers collapsed; the Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch; AIG was nationalised; banks such as Washington Mutual and Wachovia were wiped out. As credit and finance markets around the world tumbled like ninepins, so did stock markets in India, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (Sensex) falling 3.35% or 469 points on September 15. The worst affected was the realty index which dropped 7.6% on the same day. Since then, while stocks prices in India have seen massive swings, shares of real estate firms have remained depressed, falling a total of 20% as of October 1.

In addition to housing stocks, home prices are taking a beating. By some estimates, prices have dropped by 25% in certain urban markets. While in the US -- and also in Britain -- the subprime mortgage mess has seen home prices fall dramatically, in India, such slowdowns have been rare -- at least in the past. Prices may soften, sales activity may slow and occasionally a distress sale occurs, but there has not been an overall fall in home prices. "India has not seen a boom-bust cycle in real estate mainly because the industry is still nascent," says Anurag Mathur, joint managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, a global real estate solutions company. "India has not seen a boom and bust cycle in almost any sector," adds Rajesh Chakrabarti, a professor of finance at the Hyderabad-based Indian School of Business (ISB). "While there have been variations, we have not had cycles of the kind we see in the developed countries. It is only after liberalisation that the Indian economy has been seeing more cyclical movements."

According to Irfan Razack, chairman and managing director of the Prestige Group, a Bangalore-based real estate developer: "We have boom and bust cycles in India but because of our huge population, the demand keeps growing and that sustains the industry. You can build for the next 100 years and there will still be demand for housing in this country."

India has inadequate data on the real estate sector. For instance, no one tracks housing starts, an indicator that is regarded in many countries as an important yardstick of economic health. However, several real estate companies have gone public during the past couple of years, which makes information more transparent. Secondly, equity analysts have begun tracking these companies and the real estate industry.

Still, confusion continues. Consider the reaction of the markets to the Lehman collapse. Real estate was hit for two reasons. Lehman had invested $200 million in DLF Assets, a company belonging to DLF, India's largest real estate company. It had also acquired a 50% stake in Unitech's Mumbai project for $175 million. (Unitech is India's second largest real estate company.) Among other Lehman investments or proposed investments were those in the Mumbai-based Peninsula Land Ltd. and Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL).

The market was worried that if the money had not already been received, the projects would be in limbo. Most companies (Unitech, for one) claim that the cash is already sitting in their bank accounts so there is no cause for concern. Others, like HDIL, have said the deals were not with Lehman Brothers but with sister companies. These are unlikely to be affected.

The crunch might hit in the future. "With banks reducing their exposure to real estate, coupled with rising interest rates and volatile stock markets diluting the confidence of retail investors over the past one year, private equity investments have emerged as one of the most important sources of capital for real estate developers," says a FICCI-Ernst & Young (E&Y) report on the Indian real estate market released in early September. "The overall private equity investments reported in the real estate sector in India from August 2007 to July 2008 are estimated to be more than $5 billion." This tap could be turned off as a result of the financial crisis in the U.S.

Real estate investors in India were also worried that Lehman might resort to a fire sale of its assets. While India has a three-year lock-in period for foreign direct investment (FDI) in real estate, it is unclear whether this applies when a company declares bankruptcy. The government is holding a meeting to decide the norms in such cases. The other issue is that Lehman holds small stakes -- bought from the market or in bulk deals -- in real estate and infrastructure companies such as IVRCL Infrastructure, Consolidated Constructions, Orbit Corporation and Vijay Shanti Builders. Here, too, there was the possibility of a fire sale, encouraging other investors to bail out.

Temporary slowdown

Amid this gloom and the real estate-bashing that is going on in the market, many people are optimistic about the sector. Even the bears see only a temporary slowdown. "The Asia-Pacific property markets, which have seen a rapid run-up in rents and capital values in recent years, are now entering a slowdown that will continue over the next 12 months at least," says a report by real estate consultants Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL). Shobhit Agarwal, joint managing director (capital markets) of JLL Meghraj (JLLM), the global company's Indian division, says there is still some pain left. "There is now a period of stagnation, soon to be followed by a fall in prices in certain sectors and locations. Certain overheated micro-markets will see a 5% to 15% price decline. A correction of up to 10% is also expected in South Mumbai, some locations in Mumbai's suburbs, and certain areas of New Delhi that have seen unrealistic price trends.... The market will eventually consolidate."

"In the short term, we expect the market to consolidate," echoes a spokesperson of DHL. "We have not been impacted by any slowdown. We have launched many premium residential projects across the country during the past six months and have gotten a very good response. We feel that the market is moving in the right direction and there is no bubble to burst."

"In the past three to four years there has been a huge inflow of companies and funds in the real estate sector," says Chakrabarti of ISB. "It is possible that there may be a bit of a shake out and consolidation now. Given the fact that we have already seen a 20% to 25% correction, I don't expect prices to fall much further. It will probably now grow at a decent enough rate. Also, infrastructure development is a major area of emphasis and this will fuel real estate prices, especially in the smaller towns."

The problem seems to have affected residential property rather than commercial real estate or infrastructure developers. Several factors have contributed to this. First, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been raising interest rates to tackle inflation. As a result, housing finance companies have had to raise rates on loans. In 2004, interest rates on housing loans were 7.75%; they have now gone up to 12.75%. On a $50,000 loan borrowed for a period of 20 years in 2004, the interest burden was around $48,000. This has now gone up to more than $100,000.

Most housing loans in India are at variable rather than fixed interest rates, which means that monthly mortgage payments -- or EMIs (equated monthly installments), as they are called in India -- go up when interest rates rise. As a first measure, housing finance companies increase the term of the loans. When that period extends beyond the working life of the home buyer, the EMIs are increased. Housing finance companies typically consider EMIs up to 50% of net income. If, in extreme cases, these payments double, home buyers can be left with nothing to live on.

Understandably, defaults on loan repayments are increasing. While specific numbers are hard to come by, bankers say this could develop into a crisis. The financial meltdown in the US -- and the turmoil in the finance sector, which is a key market for information technology and IT-enabled services -- has seen a large number of finance professionals lose their jobs. These young, upwardly-mobile executives were the new generation of house buyers. They are now saving for the proverbial rainy day -- which has arrived. Confidence levels are down and house purchase plans have been put on the backburner.

Finance companies and banks are also being careful about approving loans. Their vetting process is taking more time. Even people who want loans and have the capacity to service their EMIs are being put through greater scrutiny.

Business as usual?

India's largest mortgage company, Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), however, says that it is business as usual. As Renu Karnad, HDFC joint managing director, told CNBC TV 18: "The demand story is a compelling one. Its plot is often repeated by HDFC's senior management that younger and younger Indians are opting for home loans. The average age of borrowers is down from 40 years to 35 years. Thanks to tax breaks, the effective cost of a loan works out to a moderate 6%. Unquenchable housing demand has the country short of 25 million homes. The loan market is a vast untapped one yet. It has taken 30 years for mortgage penetration to grow from 2.5% to 6% of GDP. With middle India kicking in, HDFC is confident that unlike other consumer goods, home loans are not that vulnerable to a slowing economy."

The FICCI E&Y survey agrees. "Despite the momentary slowdown witnessed over the past 12 months, 62% of developers foresee Indian real estate embarking upon a high growth trajectory in the long term," says the study. It does, however, point to one change. Real estate had become a speculators' haven. Now, seeing no hope of quick returns, they are bailing out. Builders believe it's the speculators who are responsible for the perceived slump. Once they are squeezed out -- many are selling at whatever price they can get to take care of their stock market losses -- things will return to normal. The study notes, "Respondents believe that genuine end-users have taken over from investors and account for 80% to 90% of sales in their current projects."

What are real estate companies doing to deal with the downturn? Well, they are putting their eggs in different baskets. In a way, it is a replay of the rush into real estate. Over the past decade, companies with no experience in property development had entered the market. Some had legitimate reasons. The textile mills in Mumbai, for instance, had been priced out of the market because of high labor costs. One of the first off the block -- Phoenix Mills -- has converted itself into a commercial, residential and entertainment complex. In August this year it raised 200 million euros from German real estate fund MPC Synergy for further development. Morarjee Mills has moved its operations to smaller (and cheaper) cities. Its properties are being developed by its real estate wing -- Peninsula Land.

In addition to the textile mills, 70-year-old Nesco Engineering, a moribund company, is today thriving because it has set up an exhibition center on its Mumbai property and has plans for an IT park. Media Video, an electronics games manufacturer and distributor, has recently listed its real estate subsidiary MVL. Its market capitalization at $87 million is eight times that of its parent. The Kolkata-based Emami group, a FMCG player, has moved into malls and housing complexes.

Now, real estate companies are exploring new investment opportunities. Builders of residential property are taking to developing commercial space. Others, such as Raheja -- a leading homebuilder -- are constructing special economic zones. Omaxe is modernizing and maintaining airstrips. DLF, Unitech and Omaxe are bidding for road projects being offered by the National Highways Authority of India. The Brigade Group is building a health spa in Chikmagalur near Bangalore. It will run the spa in tandem with Singapore-based hospitality brands Banyan Tree and Angsana. Sobha Developers already has an ayurvedic spa offering the traditional Kerala ayurvedic massage at Sobha City in Thrissur in Kerala.

Overseas markets

The second trend is a move abroad to market real estate companies' products, raise funds, source raw materials and launch projects. PRA Realty has set up shop in Chicago to be closer to venture funds. It has also opened a marketing office in Dubai. According to JLLM, non-resident Indians (NRIs) are major buyers of Indian properties, accounting for up to 25% in certain categories.

Sobha Developers has opened an office in China, from which it sources a lot of raw material. It is building a five-star hotel in Dubai. Parsvnath Builders has a subsidiary in Singapore. Puravankara Projects has started operations in Sri Lanka to build super luxury villas on the outskirts of capital Colombo. It already has a presence in the UAE. "Considering that every market is subject to fluctuations, diversification is certainly the best hedging tool for avoiding the pitfalls of sudden downward movements in any sector," says Agarwal of JLLM. "If one component fails to generate anticipated returns, others will compensate."

Other real estate companies are casting their nets wider and embracing every opportunity that comes their way. Unitech has already made a foray into telecom. It is now eyeing insurance. Preliminary talks are on with a foreign major. Omaxe is moving into steel and cement. It has on its drawing board plans for a medical college and a hospital.

Mantri Realty has earmarked $500 million for a thermal power plant in Nagpur. The Hyderabad-based JR Realtors has aquired a 10% stake in Pennar Aluminium. Indiabulls Real Estate is setting up a solar power plant in the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh. Sobha has even moved into retailing mattresses under the brandname Restoplus. IT major Infosys has already placed the first order.

HDIL has lined up a whole array of diversifications. It is getting into entertainment under the Broadway brand name. It plans to invest $200 million in a chain of 150 theaters. It is also building a coal-fired power plant. It will begin power trading soon. In perhaps the oddest move, it is bidding for oil and gas exploration blocks being auctioned by the government. "Although oil and gas is completely disconnected from our core business and what we are doing now, I can say that it will help in providing better services to customers who we serve in our projects," Sarang Wadhawan, managing director of HDIL, told business daily Mint recently.

"In the long run, given that the India growth story is likely to continue, real estate prices will certainly increase," says Chakrabarti of ISB. "However, they will not see a meteoric rise as they did earlier. It will be a more stable market. Real estate companies are therefore diversifying into different areas where they expect better growth (like telecom). This is probably not so much by choice as by compulsion. It also reduces their risks. In some sense it is sensible given that the market conditions have changed, but whether it plays out in the long run remains to be seen. In general [not just with regard to real estate] unrelated diversifications don't work out very well."

The efforts of various companies haven't had much impact on their share prices. As a high share price is necessary for fund raising, some companies are trying financial engineering. DLF, for instance, has announced a share buyback, but it is also seeking fresh funds. Analysts wonder how the two can go together. "Promoters work in the best interests of the company," responds a DLF spokesperson. "The DLF share has been quoting much below its intrinsic value. We see the share buyback decision as a highly attractive opportunity for our shareholders and a strategic move of sharing returns with investors." HDIL, meanwhile, has come out with a 2:7 bonus issue. All this doesn't appear to have helped sentiments much; both the shares -- as with most real estate companies -- are quoting below their original IPO price.

"The companies that went public rode the boom, and they will bounce back once the markets and the sector picks up," says Razack of the Prestige Group. "At that time the valuations were so aggressive that we were also tempted to go public. We didn't do it because one can't really show quarter-on-quarter growth in real estate. It becomes more [like] window dressing."

Affordable housing

Another major area into which many real estate firms are moving is affordable housing. Puravankara has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary -- Provident Housing & Infrastructure -- which will build 64,500 homes in Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Coimbatore over the next five years. Omaxe has set up the 100%-owned National Affordable Housing and Infrastructure, which will invest $20 billion over the next five years in building one million such homes. Many other builders are also climbing on the bandwagon.

The rush is partly explained by the response to government-led housing programs. The public sector Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA) plans to sell 600 low-priced apartments in Mumbai around Diwali. They will be priced around $50 a sq. ft., at a time when market rates are four times as high. MHADA expects 200,000 applications; there will be a lottery to decide the buyers. Demand for such housing is obviously very strong. A similar prgram earlier this year for 900 apartments attracted 65,000 applications. In Delhi too, the Delhi Development Authority has received 850,000 applications for 5,010 low-cost apartments.

"Affordable housing, until now, was not a part of the Indian real estate sector boom," says the FICCI-E&Y report. "However, affordable housing has recently attracted attention from prominent developers and private equity players. The investment rationale for this asset class largely encompasses an early mover advantage, volume-driven profitability, priority-sector status accorded by government and subsidised land costs, among other drivers."

Yet skeptics see dangers here. First, affordable housing may end up as substandard housing as builders cut costs to maintain margins. Second, affordable housing will go to the less-privileged classes, financed by easier norms for bank loans. Earlier this year, the government wrote off $15 billion of farm loans, which severely impacted its finances. Some observers fear that "affordable home loans" could face a similar fate. They are, after all, subprime mortgages of the kind that sparked the housing crisis in the U.S.

The consensus view about Indian real estate is that the slowdown is temporary but lots of reasons exist for optimism about the future. "Short-term concerns on the sector remain," says a report by research house Enam Securities. "End user demand (is) subdued on account of high capital values and global uncertainty keeping the capital markets under check. Developers remain strapped for liquidity. However, the long-term outlook (is) still positive. Favorable demographics, increased urbanization and higher disposable incomes will result in continued demand." According to Mathur of Cushman & Wakefield, "If you believe in the India story, the outlook for real estate, which is a critical part of the whole development process, is bright. I am very bullish about it."

Demand for residential property dips in Hyd

The demand for residential properties in Hyderabad declined by 11-12 per cent between June and August period, this year, according to a survey conducted by online real estate portal Makaan.com.

Nevertheless, property prices have gone up in 22 out of the 37 localities surveyed in the city. In 15 localities, the prices declined in the range of 1 to 10 per cent in these months.

According to portal’s vice-president and business head Aditya Verma, the survey covered 53,577 persons who are looking towards purchase of residential properties.

While 44 per cent of the demand is for residential properties costing less than Rs 30 lakh, 25 per cent demand is for properties ranging between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 60 lakh and 20 per cent of the demand is for properties costing Rs 60 lakh to Rs 1 crore. The demand for properties valued at over Rs 1 crore is 11 per cent.

Interestingly, the survey reveals, 62 per cent of the property seekers are willing to purchase residences anywhere in the city provided their essential requirements are met.

For the purpose of the survey, the state capital was broadly divided into greater Hyderabad, Hyderabad and Secunderabad. However, the report did not explain on what basis the divisions were made. For instance, Hitec City and Banjara Hills areas were included in the Hyderabad division while Jubilee Hills, located between the two areas, was included in the greater Hyderabad division. Verma said that such “flaws” would be removed in the future surveys of Makaan.com.

Similarly, with regard to the residential property for rent, the report stated that the sample size was lower than that of seekers looking to buy, which “might cause some error in the analysis”. The demand for rental properties, the report indicated, too declined by 5 to 11 per cent.

He Earned Rs 14 Lakhs In 1 Hour

While the whole city is frying under the economic crisis and the crumbling real estate crashes, there are a few individuals who are unfazed by all that and continue their life as usual, especially when it comes to spending money or staking money on games of cards.

About a week ago, a get together happened at a friend's place in one of the posh areas of Hyderabad and soon all of them got down to the game of pool. It is heard that there were about fourteen of them who took part with a minimum stake of one lakh and the winner takes all.

So here was one guy who managed to beat the rest and in just a span of one hour, he got richer by a stroke of fourteen lakhs. Well, this does not mean that all of you must close your shops and start running for such things since these are rare happenings. There are many who have lost their lives in such gambles.